Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) surged 8% this week to $72,000 as $411 million flowed into spot ETFs in April, yet analysts warn the fragile ceasefire remains on shaky ground with U.S. and Iranian officials set to meet in Pakistan on Saturday.
The Fragile Relief Rally
The fragile standstill in the Middle East has eased Bitcoin traders’ panic, but they’re not tearing up their hedges against a sharp drop just yet, according to Bybit chief market analyst Han Tan.
“Relief rallies across the risk complex have been limited by lingering doubts over a meaningful end to this Middle East conflict,” Tan said.
“The fragile ceasefire remains on shaky ground,” he added.
Bitcoin powered 8% after the U.S. and Iran announced a conditional two-week truce that includes steps tied to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The narrow shipping lane carries about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas.
The ETF Inflows
April has seen $411 million flow into spot Bitcoin ETFs, underscoring renewed investor appetite as geopolitical tensions cool.
Bybit’s derivatives data suggest the rally carries substance beyond a simple short squeeze.
Some $56 million in bearish positions were liquidated as prices jumped. Meanwhile, open interest rose alongside the rally, showing traders were adding fresh exposure.
The Inflation Problem
Central banks make interest rate decisions based on inflation data. High rates mean less money in the financial system to support risky assets like cryptocurrencies.
“As long as the Strait of Hormuz remains practically shut, a temporary halt on military strikes does little to dilute inflation risks enough to alter the global monetary policy outlook,” Tan said.
“Should this pause in the war shatter abruptly, risk assets are bound to give up much of their recent gains,” Tan added.
The Saturday Meeting
U.S. and Iranian officials meet in Pakistan on Saturday, with shipping access a central sticking point.
President Trump has demanded that Iran reopen the Strait of Hormuz and warned against levying fees on tankers.
Traffic through the corridor has largely stalled since the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran on February 28. Ships remain clustered near Dubai and Khor Fakkan.
Meanwhile, Kuwait has reported drone attacks on vital facilities, accusing Iran and proxy groups of breaching the truce. Israel continues operations in Lebanon against Hezbollah, another potential flashpoint.
BTC Key Levels for April 10
Bitcoin trades near $71,789 after breaking out of a multi-month descending channel, with price now holding above the 20 and 50 EMA support zone.
The $75,423 level, aligned with the 100 EMA, stands as the next key upside test and a decisive breakout point.
However, OBV remains flat near 1.5M, signaling weak volume confirmation and limited institutional participation.
Support rests at $69,503 and $67,000, while resistance builds toward $75,423 and the $80,000–$83,615 zone.
Image: Shutterstock
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