The S&P 500 extended its relief rally on Thursday, rising 0.62% to close at 6,824.66, as optimism around a fragile ceasefire in the Middle East continued to support equities.
The Polygon-based (CRYPTO: POL) Polymarket crowd is bearish heading into Friday. The April 10 market shows only 38% of traders betting “Up,” following $271,910 in traded volume on the April 9 outcome.
Why That Number Matters
The two-week ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran has helped stabilize sentiment after weeks of volatility driven by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. While the agreement has reduced immediate fears of escalation, uncertainty remains as both sides continue to accuse each other of violations.
Oil prices have pulled back from their recent highs but remain elevated, reflecting ongoing concerns about supply disruptions and the pace at which normal shipping activity can resume.
At the same time, investors are turning their attention to macroeconomic data. March’s consumer price index (CPI) is due Friday, along with durable goods and factory orders, which could shape expectations for inflation and Federal Reserve policy.
The Bull Case
Equities have gained momentum this week, with the S&P 500 on track for one of its strongest weekly performances in months.
Futures are little changed ahead of Friday’s open, suggesting a pause after recent gains. S&P 500 futures were down 0.12% in early trading.
How The Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 opened Thursday at 6,783.69, slightly above the prior close of 6,782.81, as steady sentiment around the ceasefire supported premarket trading. The April 9 Polymarket bet resolved “Up,” with traders correctly anticipating a higher open as the rally extended.
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