Wall Street sees a frozen housing market as the death knell for iBuying, but EMJ Capital founder Eric Jackson views it as the ultimate catalyst for Opendoor Technologies Inc. (NASDAQ:OPEN).
With shares trading at $4.31, Jackson is maintaining a staggering $82 price target, representing an 1,802.55% upside, arguing that the market is mispricing a radical corporate transformation.
A ‘Messy’ But Profitable Path
Jackson asserts that the current 6.33% mortgage rate environment hasn’t destroyed housing demand; it has merely delayed it. “He is describing deferred demand. Not destroyed demand. Deferred,” Jackson wrote in his Substack post, citing his sources from Main Street.
When rates eventually drop, Opendoor’s newly rebuilt infrastructure will be perfectly positioned to capture the coiled volume.
Acknowledging the stock’s recent volatility, massive headline losses, and dilution, Jackson remains unfazed by the bearish sentiment.
“Turnarounds are messy. That’s why they’re cheap,” Jackson stated, comparing Opendoor’s current state to Carvana Co.‘s (NYSE:CVNA) historic rebound. “The straight line was always a lie.”
The ‘Conviction Bet’
The core of Jackson’s thesis rests on Kaz Nejatian, Opendoor’s new CEO. Nejatian recently left his role as COO of Shopify Inc. (NASDAQ:SHOP)—a $200 billion tech giant—to run the $3 billion real estate firm for a $1 annual base salary.
“A COO in line to run a $200B company doesn’t leave for a $3B company unless he sees something extraordinary,” Jackson noted. “That’s not a career move. That’s a conviction bet.”
Under Nejatian, Opendoor has fundamentally altered its operations. The company slashed its headcount per transaction from 11 employees to just 1, relying heavily on AI. Within seven months, acquisition velocity surged 4.2x, and Opendoor produced the most profitable October cohort in company history.
The Signal In The Margin
While the long-term outlook is incredibly bullish, Jackson warns investors to brace for an ugly second-quarter earnings headline due to lagging sales volume comparisons.
However, he emphasizes that the fundamental unit economics have already shifted, transforming the company from a bloated property desk into an efficient market maker.
“Fewer homes sold. Higher margins per home,” Jackson concluded. “The bears will focus on volume. The signal is in the margin.”
OPEN Stock Tumbles In 2026
OPEN stock is down 26.07% year-to-date as the Nasdaq Composite index remains 1.78% lower in the same period. Furthermore, the stock was down by 47.05% in the last six months but higher by 295.41% over the year.
The stock closed Thursday 7.11% lower at $4.3100 apiece. Benzinga’s Edge Stock Rankings indicate that OPEN maintains a strong price trend in the long term but weak trends in the short and medium terms.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo courtesy: Tada Images / Shutterstock.com
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