The S&P 500 surged on Wednesday, rising 2.51% to close at 6,782.81, as markets rallied sharply following President Donald Trump‘s decision to pause attacks on Iran.
However, the Polygon-based (CRYPTO: POL) Polymarket crowd has turned bearish heading into Thursday. The April 9 market shows a majority of traders betting “Down,” and only 11% “Up,” following $144,916 in traded volume on the April 8 outcome, where sentiment stayed firmly tilted toward gains.
Why That Number Matters
Markets are now balancing optimism around a ceasefire with lingering geopolitical risks. The rally was driven by Trump’s decision to suspend military action against Iran for two weeks, alongside signals that Tehran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz during that period — easing fears of a prolonged energy shock.
However, tensions remain fragile. Iranian officials have accused the U.S. of violating ceasefire terms, while Washington has warned of a stronger military response if the agreement breaks down.
Trump also declared that any country selling arms to Iran would be subjected to a 50% tariff on all goods sold to the United States.
Oil prices reflected the shifting outlook. Crude plunged sharply on Wednesday, but was up over 3% on Thursday.
Investors are also focused on macro catalysts. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index — the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge — and weekly jobless claims are due Thursday, both of which could influence expectations for interest rates.
The Bear Case
Markets have surged on signs of de-escalation, with Wednesday’s rally marking one of the strongest sessions in months.
However, futures are pointing slightly lower after the sharp move. S&P 500 futures slipped around 0.37% in early trading.
How The Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 opened Wednesday at 6,754.36, well above the prior close of 6,601.93, as markets reacted to the overnight ceasefire announcement. The April 8 Polymarket bet resolved “Up,” with traders correctly anticipating a sharply higher open.
Image via Shutterstock
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