The prospect of a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran may not bring immediate respite to the escalating global fuel prices, warns a top energy analyst.
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, took to X on Monday to underscore that “A cease-fire itself would do little or nothing to impact oil prices directly, unless it directly and clearly impacts the current de-facto shutdown status of the Strait of Hormuz,” De Haan wrote.
Despite the Trump administration’s assurances that the heightened gas prices are a temporary issue for Americans amid the ongoing Iran war, De Haan indicated that the situation is not that straightforward.
He suggested that the ceasefire speculation has led to “premature expectations” of a price drop and added that a decline in oil prices could only be expected once the Strait can fully reopen and ships can safely transit, restoring confidence in the market.
In another article on X, he wrote that gasoline prices are expected to rise again this week, especially in inland regions, as last week’s higher wholesale costs are yet to reach consumers, potentially pushing the national average to around $4.20–$4.35 per gallon.
“The trajectory of fuel prices remains highly uncertain and is largely contingent on the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Until that occurs, the risk of further increases remains firmly in place,” he wrote.
Fuel Costs Jump Amid Hormuz Tensions
The ongoing conflict in Iran has led to a significant surge in fuel prices. The average gasoline prices stand at $4.140 per gallon, as per AAA, while at 6:10 am ET, Brent crude oil futures were trading 0.61% lower at $109.10 per barrel.
Furthermore, JPMorgan analysts warned that U.S. gasoline prices could climb above $5 a gallon in April if the war in Iran keeps the Strait of Hormuz effectively closed. This situation is already causing a shock in global energy markets.
Since the onset of the Iran war on February 28, American drivers have collectively paid an additional $8.4 billion in fuel costs. This sudden disruption to global energy markets has resulted in Americans spending an “additional $240 million per day” just to keep their vehicles on the road.
Trump-Iran Deadlock Continues
President Donald Trump set a deadline for Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, warning of military strikes on key infrastructure if it failed to comply, escalating rhetoric in a Truth Social post.
Meanwhile, Iran submitted a 10-point response to U.S. peace proposals—described by officials as “maximalist.” Trump called the response “significant” but “not good enough.”
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Image via Shutterstock
Recent Comments