Fresh intelligence reports indicate Iran is unlikely to reopen the critical waterway anytime soon.
Iran Seen Holding Strategic Oil Chokepoint
The country’s control over the strait remains its most powerful bargaining tool against the U.S., Reuters reported, citing three sources familiar with the matter.
The passage carries roughly one-fifth of the global oil trade, making any disruption a major driver of energy prices.
“Iran has tasted its power and leverage … it won’t soon give it up,” one source familiar with the assessments said.
Oil Prices, Inflation Risks Rise
Tehran’s actions — including attacks on vessels, mines and threats to commercial shipping — have made transit increasingly dangerous and costly.
That has pushed oil prices higher and raised inflation concerns, adding pressure on President Donald Trump amid a prolonged conflict.
Analysts warn that the strategy allows Iran to exert outsized influence. “Its ability to drive world energy markets … is much more potent than even a nuclear weapon,” Ali Vaez told Reuters.
Military Option Carries High Risk
Experts caution that reopening the narrow strait by force would be difficult.
At just 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, with tight shipping lanes, vessels remain vulnerable to drones and missile strikes.
“All it takes to disrupt traffic … is one or two drones,” Vaez added.
Long-Term Leverage In Play
Former CIA Director Bill Burns also told the publication that Iran is likely to use control of the strait to secure long-term concessions.
“That… sets up a really difficult negotiation,” he noted, pointing to potential demands for security guarantees and economic benefits.
Oil prices climbed to 111.54, rising 11.94 points, or 11.93%, in a strong uptrend as of 6:33:56 p.m. EDT.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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