Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) may be approaching a critical phase in its market cycle after a 52% correction from its October 2025 peak, aligning with a key moving average signal seen in late February.
• Why is BTC dropping today?
Transition From Bear To Bull Markets
In a March 30 post on X, crypto analyst Ali Martinez pointed to the three-day chart, where the crossover of the 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages has historically marked the transition from bear to bull markets.
In previous cycles, including 2014, 2018 and 2022, this signal occurred after Bitcoin had declined between 50% and 72%.
Following the crossover, markets typically experienced a final capitulation phase within 23 to 33 days, with prices falling an additional 40% to 50% before establishing a long-term bottom.
In 2022, while an initial bottom formed soon after the signal, a lower low followed months later, completing the broader bear cycle.
Two Potential Accumulation Targets
Martinez said roughly 30 days have passed since the latest signal, placing Bitcoin in what he describes as a “final accumulation window.” This phase often represents the last opportunity for long-term investors to build positions before a new bull cycle begins.
Based on historical patterns, he outlined two potential downside targets: around $40,000, implying a moderate 30% decline, and $30,000, representing a deeper 50% correction.
While not certain, such a move could mark the final stage of the current cycle before a macro bottom forms.
Photo Courtesy: Hi my name is Jacco on Shutterstock
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