In March 2024, independent investment research firm Citrini Research — founded in 2023 by James van Geelen — built a long/short market-neutral basket to trade the 2024 U.S. presidential election.
The basket held long positions in stocks expected to benefit from a Republican win and short positions in names exposed to Democratic policy priorities.
The basket spanned roughly 120 names across themes including tariffs, energy, financial deregulation, healthcare and immigration policy. It was designed as a perception play on election odds, not a post-election fundamentals bet.
Post-Election Surge, Then A Sharp 2026 Reversal
According to a performance chart shared by Citrini Research, the basket surged sharply after the November 2024 election. It continued rising into mid-to-late 2025, reaching a peak return of over 220% since inception in early 2024.
The strategy then reversed hard. By early 2026, the basket had given back more than two-thirds of those peak gains.
As of the post, the basket still showed a cumulative return of approximately 65.49% since early 2024. However, the post-election alpha — the gain specifically attributed to the Trump trade — has been wiped out.
Longs And Shorts Converging — And A Crypto Comparison
The convergence between the long and short legs is striking given the basket’s breadth. A user on X noted that Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) had undergone a similar trajectory. Citrini Research replied:
“Crazy how close they’ve traded when you consider this is long/short on 120 names, maybe 5 of which have any exposure to crypto whatsoever.”
The comment underlines the macro-level nature of the reversal. The basket was not being dragged by a handful of crypto-adjacent names. The convergence appears broad-based across the full roster of policy-sensitive equities.
What The Chart Signals For Traders
The chart is a textbook example of policy momentum trading — a strategy that profits from the market’s shifting expectations about government direction rather than individual company fundamentals.
The steep 2026 drawdown suggests a significant repricing of macro expectations.
Citrini Research, which gained attention in February for its at times contrarian reports on the economic impact of artificial intelligence, did not specify a single catalyst in the post.
Citrini Research: Election 2024 Basket Key Constituents
The table below reflects key names mentioned in Citrini Research’s original March 2024 basket framework.
| Company & Ticker | Basket Side | Sub-theme |
| Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Short | EV / IRA exposure |
| NextEra Energy Inc. (NYSE:NEE) | Short | Clean energy / IRA |
| Plug Power Inc. (NASDAQ:PLUG) | Short | Green hydrogen |
| Albemarle Corp. (NYSE:ALB) | Short | Lithium / battery |
| Enphase Energy Inc. (NASDAQ:ENPH) | Short | Solar / IRA |
| Palantir Technologies Inc. (NYSE:PLTR) | Long | Defense / immigration tech |
| Axon Enterprise Inc. (NASDAQ:AXON) | Long | Law enforcement tech |
| GEO Group Inc. (NYSE:GEO) | Long | Private prisons / detention |
| CoreCivic Inc. (NYSE:CXW) | Long | Private prisons / detention |
| Blackstone Inc. (NYSE:BX) | Long | Financial deregulation / M&A |
| Oracle Corp. (NYSE:ORCL) | Long | GOP donor alignment |
| Motorola Solutions Inc. (NYSE:MSI) | Long | Law enforcement tech |
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