Global PC shipments are expected to decline 5% year over year in 2026 to 262 million units, according to Counterpoint Research’s Global PC Market Forecast. Rising memory prices remain the main headwind. These higher costs are forcing OEMs to increase device prices, which is reducing demand.
However, the PC market is still more resilient than other consumer electronics segments. A strong replacement cycle is helping support demand. Many devices are still eligible for upgrades to Windows 11. Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ:MSFT) continues to push operating system upgrades, which is driving hardware refresh activity.
Mixed Outlook for PC Makers
Performance will vary across vendors. Lenovo Group Ltd. (OTC:LNVGY), HP Inc. (NYSE:HPQ), and Dell Technologies Inc. (NYSE:DELL) are expected to report mid-single-digit shipment declines. Dell may see the smallest drop due to its focus on commercial and premium segments, which are less sensitive to price increases.
Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) is likely to outperform the broader market. Its new $599 MacBook Neo targets budget and education buyers. The expected launch of an OLED-based laptop later in 2026 could also strengthen its premium lineup.
Meanwhile, ASUSTeK Computer Inc., Acer Inc., and smaller brands may face steeper declines. These companies rely more on low-end segments, where buyers are highly price sensitive.
Outlook Supported by Upgrades and AI PCs
Senior Analyst Minsoo Kang said, “The continuous surge in memory prices is forcing PC OEMs into a difficult choice – absorb margin compression or pass the costs on to consumers through price hikes. As major players are already implementing or planning price increases, an immediate softening of consumer demand is highly anticipated.”
He added that higher prices may lift average selling prices, but lower volumes will likely reduce revenue. Still, about 40% of devices run on Windows 10 or older systems. This creates strong upgrade demand, which may limit the decline.
Associate Director David Naranjo said, “While supply-side pressures will remain for 2026 due to DRAM and NAND shortages and price increases, the Windows 10/11 refresh cycle may continue for H1 2026 to support some shipments, but certainly not enough to offset the declines. In 2027, although the expectation is that memory shortages and pricing pressures will continue, I would expect that this would start to ease toward the end of 2026. In addition, AI PCs are expected to continue to gain traction, providing a tailwind for flat or modest YoY growth.”
Photo by Sklo Studio via Shutterstock
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