Democrats flipped a Republican-leaning Florida state House seat that includes President Donald Trump’s Mar-a-Lago estate on Tuesday, handing the party a symbolic win in Palm Beach County and another data point in a run of special-election overperformances.
Gregory Scores Upset In Trump Territory
Democrat Emily Gregory, a health and fitness small-business owner, defeated Trump-backed Republican Jon Maples, a financial adviser, in the race for the open House District 87 seat, according to the Associated Press.
Gregory beat Maples in a Palm Beach County-based district that Trump carried by 11 points, Axios reported, even though the president cast his ballot for Maples by mail despite his long-running attacks on mail voting.
The seat opened after Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) appointed Republican Mike Caruso in August to serve as Palm Beach County clerk and comptroller. AP said Caruso had won the district by 19 points in 2024 before resigning.
South Florida Shows Its Split Personality
While Trump carried the district comfortably in 2024, former Vice President Kamala Harris narrowly won Palm Beach County by less than 1 point, according to statewide election results. The district also overlaps territory represented in Congress by Democratic Rep. Lois Frankel (D-Fla.) and Republican Rep. Brian Mast (R-Fla.), reflecting the region’s mixed political map.
Democrats Build Momentum Despite GOP Confidence
The upset also fits a broader pattern. Republicans have been losing dozens of state legislative specials since Trump returned to office and Democratic candidates in those races this year have run nearly 11 points ahead of Harris’s 2024 vote share, as per The Downballot, a site that tracks congressional and state-level elections. AP separately described Gregory’s win as the 29th state legislative seat Democrats have flipped from GOP control since Trump took office.
It was not Florida Democrats’ first recent bright spot. In December, Democrat Eileen Higgins won Miami’s mayoral race, becoming the city’s first Democratic mayor in nearly three decades.
Republicans told Axios they remain confident they can hold the governorship and a U.S. Senate seat this fall. It is also worth noting that Florida Republicans have not lost a statewide race since 2018 and still control the legislature.
Photo Courtesy: FloridaStock on Shutterstock.com
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