Traders reportedly placed bets amounting to more than $500 million in the oil market minutes before a significant post by President Donald Trump concerning “productive” Iran talks.
Approximately 6,200 Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures contracts were traded between 6.49 am and 6.50 am New York time on Monday, just 15 minutes before Trump’s post on Truth Social. These trades had a notional value of $580 million, as per calculations by the Financial Times.
Trading volumes for Brent and WTI surged at the same time, 27 seconds before 6.50 am. S&P 500 futures also saw a price jump shortly after the oil trade, with trading volumes significantly increasing during that period. The entities behind these well-timed trades remain unknown.
These trades mirror the recent pattern of large, profitable bets on prediction market Polymarket regarding the timing of U.S. attacks on Iran and Venezuela. Some traders have expressed frustration over these unusually timed large trades. One portfolio manager described the situation as “really abnormal,” adding, “Somebody just got a lot richer,” according to the publication.
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and CME Group did not immediately respond to Benzinga’s request for comments.
Iran Calls It Market Manipulation
Trump initially threatened to “obliterate” Iran’s power plants if the Strait of Hormuz stayed closed, but later said “productive” talks were underway on Monday before market opening, and the planned strikes for five days.
This sudden reversal led to a significant impact on the markets. Following Trump’s announcement, crude oil prices tumbled nearly 8%, triggering a rapid unwinding of the war premium embedded across asset classes. Brent crude fell to $103.14, while WTI crude dropped to nearly $86 per barrel.
Around 6:50 a.m. ET on Monday, S&P 500 e-mini futures recorded a sudden surge in trading volume on CME Group, standing out amid otherwise subdued premarket activity, nearly 15 minutes before Trump’s post, CNBC reported.
However, Iranian officials across the government denied any negotiations, with Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf calling it “fake news” to manipulate markets.
Tim Walz, Peter Schiff Raise Questions
Gov. Tim Walz (D-Minn.) took to X and questioned, “Americans need to know which officials traded stocks before Trump posted about Iran last night.”
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by a Benzinga editor.
Image via Shutterstock
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