President Donald Trump on Monday shifted gears and announced a 5-day pause on all U.S. strikes against Iranian energy infrastructure, soon after saying the U.S. will not back down from the Iran war.
Trump had issued the warning amid threats from the Islamic Republic that it would target the energy and water systems of Gulf neighbors. Trump had issued an ultimatum to hit Iran’s electricity grid unless Tehran fully reopened the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours.
Trump Holds Talks With Iran
Trump, in a post on Truth Social on Monday, said that the U.S. and Iran had held “very good and productive conversations,” toward “a complete and total resolution” of hostilities in the Middle East.
Iran Dismisses Trump’s Truce Talks
Iran’s foreign ministry, however, denied any conversation had taken place, saying Trump’s announcement was designed to influence oil prices.
Iran on Tuesday launched waves of missiles at Israel, according to a Reuters report, putting at risk the 5-day pause announced by Trump.
Prediction Market Bets On War’s End
Amid Trump’s statement on a 5-day pause, the prediction market is betting on when the President will announce an end to military operations against Iran.
Polymarket, a Polygon (CRYPTO: POL) based prediction platform that allows users to wager on an outcome using the USDC (CRYPTO: USDC) stablecoin is currently betting on a contract “Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by …?”
Over $5.1 million has been bet on the contract so far.
The prediction market is not confident about an end to hostilities this month.
The March 31 option has only 19% probability as per bettors, down by 36%. The April 15 option, however, has a 46% probability according to bettors.
Bettors are more confident about the war ending by April 30, with a probability of 57%. The June 30 option has the highest probability at 77%.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo courtesy: Saku_rata160520 via Shutterstock
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