The S&P 500 posted its best session since early February on Monday, rising 1.15% to close at 6,581, after President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that the U.S. and Iran had held “very good and productive conversations” toward a resolution of hostilities and announced a five-day pause on military strikes against Iranian power plants and energy infrastructure.
The Polygon-based (CRYPTO: POL) Polymarket crowd is firmly bearish heading into Tuesday’s open. The “S&P 500 Opens Up or Down on March 24?” market is at 73% “Down” and 27% “Up,” with $41,024 in traded volume.
Why That Number Matters
Monday’s rally ran into a wall. By early Tuesday, futures had reversed course after Tehran denied that talks were taking place, with Iran’s parliamentary speaker saying such claims were “fake news” and being “used to manipulate financial and oil markets.”
At 2.08 AM ET, S&P 500 futures were down 0.56% at 6,597.75 points.
The five-day pause on strikes is time-limited and conditional on the success of ongoing talks, which Iran is publicly denying. Oil fell sharply on Monday — WTI settled down more than 10% at $88.13, and Brent dropped nearly 11% to $99.94 — but futures are reversing overnight as the diplomatic picture clouds. At 2.08 AM ET, WTI futures were hovering around $91 per barrel, while benchmark Brent futures were at $102.92.
U.S. manufacturing PMI data is due Tuesday morning, adding another potential market-moving data point before the open.
The Bull Countercase
Trump said Monday that both Iran and the U.S. wish to “make a deal,” and the S&P 500 is still roughly 6% below its all-time high. If potential talks progress through the week, the five-day clock gives markets something concrete to trade on.
How The Previous Bet Played Out: The benchmark index opened Monday at 6,574.96 — up from Friday’s close of 6,506.48. “Up” resolved correctly on $483,734 in traded volume.
Image via Shutterstock
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