The odds of the Iranian regime surviving the ongoing U.S. military offensive have surged sharply since the beginning of the month.
Chances Of Islamic Republic Holding Power Spike
Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based Polymarket now assigns a 73% probability that Iran’s current ruling system, led by the Supreme Leader and Guardian Council, will remain in power through June 30, up from 47% at the start of the month.
Over $377,000 has been staked on the outcome, which would resolve to “No” only if the Islamic Republic ceases to hold sovereign authority. Otherwise, it resolves to “Yes.”
Meanwhile, the odds that Mojtaba Khamenei loses his position as Iran’s Supreme Leader before an official ceasefire with the U.S. is reached stood at 52% on Polymarket.
The Middle East War Drags On
The U.S. and Israel launched coordinated, direct military attacks on Iran on Feb. 28 and killed the country’s former Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Iran launched retaliatory strikes targeting Israel, along with several U.S. military bases and embassies across neighboring Gulf nations.
Iran targeted Gulf energy sites, including the world’s largest liquefied natural gas processing facility in Qatar, according to Reuters. The attack was in retaliation for Israel targeting Iran’s South Pars gas processing facility earlier in the day.
President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that the U.S. is not prepared to bring the military conflict to a close, but would still do so in the “near future.”
Trump said he declined Iran’s offer to negotiate a ceasefire because the terms weren’t “good enough.” Iran, for its part, has vowed to keep fighting. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said earlier this week that the country “neither sought a truce nor talks” and such claims are “delusional.”
Image via Shutterstock/ sf_freelance
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