Cryptocurrency bettors are split on whether Mojtaba Khamenei loses his position as Iran’s Supreme Leader before an official ceasefire with the U.S. is reached.
Prediction Market Divided
On Polymarket, based on Polygon (CRYPTO: POL), the odds that a leadership change happens before a ceasefire announcement climbed to 53%, compared to 44% a week ago
Khamenei will cease to be Supreme Leader if he is removed, detained, or blocked from discharging his responsibilities. An official announcement confirming his resignation or removal would be sufficient for resolution.
Note that “leadership change” refers to Khamenei’s removal, not the collapse of the theocratic regime.
Similarly, an “official ceasefire agreement” requires public confirmation from both the U.S. government and the Iranian government that they have agreed to halt hostilities.
No One Ready To Budge
The divided house comes even as President Donald Trump said he declined Iran’s offer to negotiate a ceasefire because the terms weren’t “good enough.”
The hostilities haven’t stopped. Israel eliminated the secretary of Iran’s National Security Council on Tuesday, while the U.S. said it struck Iranian missile sites along the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran, for its part, has vowed to keep fighting. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said earlier this week that the country “neither sought a truce nor talks” and such claims are “delusional.”
Mojtaba Khamenei is yet to make a public appearance, though he declared in his first public address—read on state media by a news anchor—that the Strait of Hormuz must remain closed as a pressure tactic
Photo courtesy: Shutterstock
Recent Comments