The S&P 500 rose for a second straight session on Tuesday, closing up 0.25% at 6,716.09, as Wall Street continued to build on momentum from Monday’s rebound.
Stocks eased from their highs after President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that the U.S. no longer needed NATO allies’ help in the Middle East — a comment that briefly lifted oil prices and took the edge off the rally. Futures are pointing higher early Wednesday.
The Polygon-based (CRYPTO: POL) Polymarket crowd is decisively bullish heading into Wednesday’s open. The “S&P 500 Opens Up or Down on March 18?” market sits at 85% “Up,” 15% “Down,” with $12,887 in early traded volume, in one of the most convincing leans this market has seen in weeks.
Why That Number Matters
Two straight sessions of gains have given the bulls a foothold. At 2.10 AM ET, S&P 500 futures were up 0.47% at 6,805.25 points.
Brent crude futures hovered around $101 per barrel, down over 2% and reversing gains as Iraq reached a deal to resume oil exports through Turkey’s Ceyhan port, easing some concerns over supply disruptions tied to the Iran war.
Micron Technology (NASDAQ:MU) reports fiscal second-quarter results after markets close, with the stock up 62% this year on soaring demand for high-bandwidth memory.
The Bear Countercase
The Federal Reserve’s decision arrives on Wednesday afternoon. Markets are nearly certain the central bank holds rates steady between 3.5% and 3.75%, but what Chair Jerome Powell says about oil and inflation in light of the Iran conflict will be on investors’ radar.
Producer Price Index data for February is also due Wednesday morning, with the Dow Jones consensus calling for a 0.3% monthly increase.
Brent crude settled at $103.42 on Tuesday — its highest close since August 2022. And news broke Tuesday that Iran’s security chief, Ali Larijani, was killed in airstrikes, according to Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz, adding a fresh layer of geopolitical risk. A wave of Iranian attacks on the United Arab Emirates’ and Saudi Arabia’s energy infrastructure has also sparked fears about crude and fuel shipping.
How The Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 opened Tuesday at 6,722.35 — up from Monday’s close of 6,699.38. “Up” resolved correctly, with bets climbing steadily in the hours before markets opened, although the volume on the March 17 market was thin at $110,334, reflecting limited Polymarket participation ahead of the Fed decision.
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