Punters are skeptical that a ban on congressional stock trading will be enacted this year, despite the ongoing conflict‑of‑interest debate.
No Ban This Year?
A Kalshi market on whether members of Congress will be banned from trading stocks before 2027 currently shows just 15% odds in favor. The odds of this happening before Jan. 21, 2029, stood at 57%.
Note that a congressional stock trading ban may still qualify for a “Yes” if lawmakers are permitted to use blind trusts or invest in diversified assets like exchange-traded funds or mutual funds. The restriction only applies to individual stock trading.
A similar bet on Polygon (CRYPTO: POL)-based Polymarket showed a 22% chance of a ban this year.
The Intense Debate
Several proposals aimed at banning congressional stock trading have emerged in recent years, including the Halting Ownership of Non-Ethical Securities and Trusts Act—the HONEST Act, an acronym based on the bill’s title.
Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), the former House Speaker who has come under heavy scrutiny for her stock trades, voiced support for legislation that was, until recently, named after her — the PELOSI Act.
While Pelosi ranks among the most closely tracked members of Congress for her trades, thanks to their strong performance and scale, several Republican lawmakers executed trades that raised eyebrows.
Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), who resigned earlier in January, was under the scanner last year for buying shares of several stocks as the market declined on news of President Donald Trump‘s reciprocal tariffs.
The 2012 STOCK Act requires members to disclose stock trades within 45 days, but members of both political parties have violated this rule.
Notably, Chris Josephs, who co-founded Autopilot, a platform that lets users copy the trading activity of Pelosi and her husband, told Benzinga that the stock trading ban could be coming sooner than later because people are “sick of it.”
Photo courtesy: santima.studio / Shutterstock
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