The S&P 500 fell to its lowest close of 2026 on Thursday after Iran’s newly appointed Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, declared that the Strait of Hormuz must remain closed as a “tool to pressure the enemy,” pushing up oil prices and rattling investors.
The Polygon-based (CRYPTO: POL) Polymarket crowd is effectively split heading into Friday. The “S&P 500 Opens Up or Down on March 13?” market sits at 34% “Up,” 66% “Down,” with $38,435 in early trading volume.
Why That Number Matters
The benchmark index shed 1.52% to settle at 6,672.62 on Thursday — the lowest print since November — as Brent crude settled above $100 per barrel for the first time since August 2022.
The International Energy Agency called the Middle East conflict the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.26% — its highest since early February — as bond markets repriced the inflation outlook.
The Bull Countercase
Friday’s PCE report is the only clean catalyst left for the bulls. If January core inflation comes in at or below the Dow Jones consensus, it gives the Fed room to act, and markets something to rally on that has nothing to do with oil.
The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge is due at 8:30 AM ET. The Dow Jones consensus expects core PCE to come in at 0.4% month-over-month and 3.1% year-over-year, which would be the highest core reading since March 2024.
At last check, S&P 500 futures were at 6,662.25, down by 0.23%.
How The Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 opened Thursday lower at 6,740.88. “Down” resolved correctly on $197,528 in traded volume.
Image via Shutterstock
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