Mojtaba Khamenei may have been appointed Iran’s Supreme Leader only days ago, but cryptocurrency bettors are already wagering on how soon he might exit.
Bets On New Supreme Leader
Prediction market Polymarket, based on Polygon (CRYPTO: POL), shows a 64% probability that Mojtaba Khamenei is removed, detained, or blocked from acting as Iran’s Supreme Leader before year‑end, with 38% odds of this happening by April 30.
Over $2 million has been wagered on the outcome and an official announcement of his resignation or removal would suffice for a “Yes” resolution.
Notably, a similar bet regarding his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed in U.S. strikes on the first day of the Middle East war, was resolved to “Yes,” raising ethical concerns about allowing traders to profit from a person’s death.
Kalshi, another big player in the market, was sued after the platform refused to pay out bettors, pointing to safeguards that prevent trading on outcomes involving deaths.
Mystery Around Mojatab Khamenei
Mojtaba Khamenei is yet to make a public appearance, though he declared in his first public address—read on state media by a news anchor—that the Strait of Hormuz must remain closed as a pressure tactic
President Donald Trump stated earlier that the new Supreme Leader will need to “get approval from us” or else “he’s not going to last long.”
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) warned in an X post that Mojtaba Khamenei will meet the same fate as his father.
Photo Courtesy: Tomas Ragina on Shutterstock.com
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