Is Bitcoin Heading To $40,000? Analyst Warns Potential Weakness Into April

by | Mar 12, 2026 | General

Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has been trading in a range for months, with observers searching for short-term price patterns that could signal where the market may head in the longer run.

Bitcoin Often Rises Before Sharp Bear Market Drops

Prominent analyst Benjamin Cowen said in a March 11 podcast that bear markets in Bitcoin often behave counterintuitively, with prices spending more time drifting upward than falling.

These rallies can last weeks or months, creating optimism that a new bull market has begun before a rapid capitulation pushes prices to a lower low.

According to Cowen, this structure makes bear markets difficult to identify in real time because temporary rebounds often convince investors that the downturn has ended.

He also highlighted the difference between “price cheerleaders,” who remain permanently bullish, and analysts focused on risk management and cycle analysis.

While maintaining a long-term bullish outlook on Bitcoin can work, Cowen said failing to adapt to market cycles can lead to missed opportunities or extended underperformance.

Cowen also noted that Bitcoin’s value relative to Gold is roughly the same as in 2017, suggesting that simply holding BTC without considering broader macro conditions may not always outperform.

Another Breakdown Could Still Happen

Cowen said Bitcoin currently appears to be following a typical bear market structure:

  • A local low forms (for example around $80,000)
  • The market trends upward for several months
  • Prices break down to a new lower low (such as $60,000)
  • The market then drifts higher again before another potential drop

He says this pattern could continue in the coming months, possibly leading to another breakdown.

Cowen also pointed out that U.S. midterm election years historically show market weakness between March and April, which could add pressure to crypto markets.

Because of this, he said the key strategy during such periods is risk management and limiting portfolio drawdowns, rather than chasing short-term rallies driven by narratives such as ETF inflows or institutional adoption.

Image: Shutterstock