Will S&P 500 Open Up Or Down On March 12? Here Is How Polymarket Traders Lean As Oil Rebounds, Private Credit Concerns Mount

by | Mar 12, 2026 | General

The S&P 500 closed Wednesday’s session down 0.084% at 6,775.80, extending its losses as a historic release of strategic oil reserves failed to cool surging crude prices.

The Polygon-based (CRYPTO: POL) Polymarket crowd is leaning significantly bearish heading into Thursday. The March 12 market currently shows only a 12% chance of traders betting on an “Up” opening. Early trading volume for the March 12 bet has reached $26,319.

Why That Number Matters?

Energy markets continue to dictate the narrative. Despite the IEA authorizing a record 400-million-barrel release of emergency reserves, WTI crude jumped 8.45% to $94.62, at the last check, after Iran reportedly struck three more cargo vessels in the Strait of Hormuz.

Beyond energy, a new turmoil in private credit markets emerged in the financial sector. Reports that JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) tightened lending to private credit funds triggered a broad selloff in alternative asset managers.

Major players like Ares Management Corp. (NYSE:ARES) and Blue Owl Capital Inc. (NYSE:OWL) saw declines of nearly 5%, weighing heavily on broader risk sentiment.

While February’s CPI data rose 0.3%—largely in line with expectations —investors are looking past it. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.23% as the market began pricing in the inflationary impact of the current energy spike.

The Bull Case

The primary engine for optimism remains enterprise tech. Oracle Corp. (NYSE:ORCL) shares surged over 9% on Wednesday after the company reported a 243% explosion in AI infrastructure revenue and raised its fiscal 2027 guidance to $90 billion.

Additionally, IEA’s massive reserve release will eventually hit the tape, and it is likely to stabilize prices once the immediate shock of the overnight shipping attacks is digested. However, Goldman Sachs warned on Wednesday: the release, while historic, cannot close the supply gap on its own.

How The Previous Bet Played Out

The S&P 500 opened Wednesday “Up,” resolving the March 11 Polymarket bet in favor of the bulls. While the index ended the day in the red, it opened at a level high enough to trigger a 68% to 75% chance of resolution for “Up” traders in the last hour. Total trading volume for the March 11 open reached $107,212.

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