U.S. intelligence assessments show Iran’s leadership remains largely intact and is not in danger of collapsing any time soon, despite nearly two weeks of U.S. and Israeli strikes.
Intelligence Sees Regime Holding Firm
Reuters reported Wednesday that a “multitude” of intelligence reports, according to three people familiar with the findings, offer “consistent analysis that the regime is not in danger” and “retains control of the Iranian public,” with the most recent assessment completed within the past few days.
Succession Fails To Shake Control
The reporting points to surprising resilience inside Iran’s clerical system even after the killing of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei on Feb. 28, the first day of the war. Reuters said the assessments indicate that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and interim leaders who took power after Khamenei’s death still control the country. The Assembly of Experts has since declared Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba, Iran’s new supreme leader.
Trump Faces Murky Endgame Options
That outlook complicates President Donald Trump’s search for an endgame. Reuters reported that, with political pressure rising over oil costs, Trump, in a brief interview with Axios on Wednesday, suggested he wants to end the biggest U.S. military operation since 2003 “soon.” But if Iran’s hardline leadership stays firmly entrenched, it may be difficult for Washington and Jerusalem to claim a decisive political outcome.
Israeli officials, in private discussions, have also acknowledged there is no certainty the war will topple the clerical government, though people familiar with the matter cautioned that conditions inside Iran remain fluid and could still change.
Since the war began, the U.S. and Israel have struck Iranian air defenses, nuclear facilities and senior officials. Trump initially urged Iranians to “take over your government,” but top aides later denied to Reuters that regime change was the formal objective. The same report said it remains unclear how the current air campaign alone would bring down the government, and noted that the Trump administration still has not ruled out sending U.S. troops into Iran.
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