The S&P 500 made a dramatic comeback on Monday, rising 0.83% to close at 6,795.99 after President Donald Trump said the war against Iran was “very complete, pretty much,” sending the index surging from losses of as much as 1.5% earlier in the session.
The Polygon-based (CRYPTO: POL) Polymarket crowd is cautiously split heading into Tuesday. The March 10 market sits at 49% “Down,” 51% “Up,” with $40,712 in early trading volume placed against whether the S&P will open up or down.
Why That Number Matters
Monday’s close masks how bad the morning was. The VIX Index, Wall Street’s Fear Gauge, also spiked above 30 for the first time since last April’s tariff-fueled leap.
Trump’s comments triggered an immediate reversal in oil markets. WTI crude, which had surged past $100 per barrel overnight and touched $119 at its peak, retreated sharply to around $81 — levels last seen before the conflict escalated. Brent crude similarly pulled back to $84 per barrel. The last time oil traded above $100 was in 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine.
The Friday jobs number also made things worse before Monday’s recovery, raising fears of stagflation.
The Bull Case
On Tuesday morning, energy ministers from the Group of Seven (G7) countries, namely, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the U.S., will meet virtually to discuss a potential release of strategic oil reserves. G7 finance ministers met on Monday to discuss a release of reserves, but did not make a decision.
BlackRock said in a note to clients that while “the situation is fluid and the risks are real,” it believes the energy shock is “likely to be short-lived,” with supply disruptions expected to last weeks rather than months.
Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) will also report its third-quarter results on Tuesday after markets close.
S&P 500 futures are currently at 6,787.25, down by 14.25 points, or 0.21%.
How The Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 opened Monday at 6,699.80, as oil’s overnight surge rattled premarket sentiment. “Down” resolved correctly on $268,511 in traded volume. The crowd called it right, even as the index staged a dramatic intraday recovery to close well above its open.
Image via Shutterstock
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