The S&P 500 closed Friday at 6,740.02, down 1.33%, with futures falling further Monday morning as oil resumed its climb amid uncertainty over the Iran war.
The Polygon-based (CRYPTO: POL) Polymarket is sending a bearish signal at the beginning of the week. In the early trades, “Up” was the minority call, with only 6% chance of the S&P 500 opening higher, while 94% of bettors bet their money on a “Down” opening.
Why That Number Matters
The odds reflect genuine uncertainty amid rising crude oil prices. Brent Crude spiked over 22.99% to hit $114.00, while WTI surged 1.20% to $110.17, with both benchmarks now aggressively testing their 52-week highs of $119.46 and $119.46, respectively.
This was followed by Iranian state media confirming Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as the new Supreme Leader.
Meanwhile, on Sunday, President Donald Trump said surging oil prices are a “very small price to pay” for global security.
The Bear Case
On Friday, the February U.S. employment report showed total nonfarm payrolls edged down by 92,000, falling short of the modest gains economists had anticipated.
Despite the dip in payrolls, the unemployment rate held relatively steady at 4.4%. On the inflation front, average hourly earnings for private nonfarm workers rose by 0.4% to $37.32 in February, bringing the year-over-year increase to 3.8%.
At last check, S&P 500 futures were down 1.43% at 6,608.50.
How The Previous Bet Played Out: The benchmark index opened Friday down at 6,769.03, contrary to the “Up” bets in Friday’s pre-market. It’s worth noting that “Up” held around 60% majority as late as two hours before the opening bell till 9:30 a.m.
Photo courtesy: Shutterstock
Recent Comments