The S&P 500 closed Thursday at 6,830.71, down 0.56%, giving back most of Wednesday’s recovery as oil resumed its climb and Iran war uncertainty returned.
The Polygon-based (CRYPTO: POL) Polymarket is sending its clearest bullish signal of the week. For the first time since the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran upended markets on Monday, “Up” is the majority call in early trades, with the March 6 market currently at 65% “Up” and 35% “Down” on whether the S&P will open above or below on Friday.
Why That Number Matters
The odds reflect genuine uncertainty around the single biggest number of the week. February’s non-farm payrolls report is due Friday morning. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones expect payroll growth of 50,000, and the unemployment rate is expected to hold at 4.3%.
A strong print keeps the Fed on hold longer. A weak one reopens the rate-cut conversation. Traders have already pushed their forecasts for the first Fed rate cut further into the summer, with less than one-in-three odds now priced in for the June meeting.
Oil is the other variable. Hundreds of ships remain stuck in the Persian Gulf despite U.S. promises to escort oil tankers through the Strait of Hormuz, and Iran has enough drones to create havoc in the Gulf for months, according to a Reuters report. WTI crude oil futures settled 8.5% higher at $81.01 on Thursday, while Brent crude futures rose by nealry 5%. At last check on Friday, WTI Crude was at $80.45 per barrel, while Brent hovered around $85.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury rose to 4.14% on Thursday, as rising energy prices kept inflation expectations elevated.
The Countercase
Weekly initial jobless claims came in at 213,000 on Thursday, unchanged from the prior week and below the 215,000 estimate, pointing to a resilient labor market ahead of payrolls. ADP’s private payrolls report also beat expectations earlier this week as U.S. private employers added 63,000 jobs in February, above the 48,000 consensus and a sharp rebound from January’s downwardly revised 11,000.
At last check, S&P 500 futures were up 0.24% at 6,851.50.
How The Previous Bet Played Out: The benchmark index opened Thursday down at 6,851.08, and the market resolved “Down” on $309,343 in traded volumes. It’s worth noting that “Up” held a 54% majority as late as two hours before the opening bell, only to collapse to 14.5% within 45 minutes in a dramatic late swing that suggests traders were repositioning fast as futures deteriorated heading into the open.
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