The S&P 500 closed up 0.8% on Wednesday at 6,869.50, snapping a three-day losing streak as technology and semiconductor stocks led a broad recovery. Investor jitters around the U.S.-Iran war eased after oil prices stabilized and President Donald Trump‘s comments on protecting shipping lanes offered some reassurance.
But, the Polygon-based (CRYPTO: POL) Polymarket crowd is less convinced the relief will last. The March 5 market sits at 70% “Down,” 30% “Up” on whether the S&P will open up or down on Thursday.
Why That Number Matters
Wednesday’s close is a meaningful recovery from Tuesday’s low, but the index remains in negative territory for 2026. At last check, S&P 500 futures were down 0.43% at 6,846.75 points, suggesting the recovery may not carry cleanly into Thursday’s open.
The macro picture is also complicated. Oil prices stabilized on Wednesday, and Brent crude ended the session flat after surging nearly 20% across Monday and Tuesday, but the White House offered no timeline for when the Strait of Hormuz will be safe for oil tankers. On top of that, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that Trump’s 15% global tariff will likely go into effect this week, indicating a fresh headwind the market hasn’t fully priced in.
On the economic front, ADP’s private payrolls report beat expectations on Wednesday as U.S. private employers added 63,000 jobs in February, above the 48,000 consensus and a sharp rebound from January’s downwardly revised 11,000.
Weekly jobless claims are due Thursday morning, followed by Friday’s official non-farm payrolls report, which will be a bigger test for the index’s direction.
The Bull Countercase
NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA) shares rose more than 1% on Wednesday, with Micron, AMD, and Intel all posting gains. Broadcom (NASDAQ:AVGO) also announced a $10 billion share buyback after reporting earnings on Wednesday, adding a corporate tailwind into Thursday’s open.
Earnings from Costco (NASDAQ:COST) and Marvell Technology (NASDAQ:MRVL) are due after Thursday’s close, with Kroger (NYSE:KR) and BJ’s Wholesale (NYSE:BJ) reporting before the bell.
How The Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 opened Wednesday at 6,831.69 — up 15 points from Tuesday’s close of 6,816.63, resolving “Up.” The crowd got there eventually. After spending most of the session leaning over 70% “Down,” bettors dramatically flipped in the final minutes, pushing “Up” odds to 97.3% just 15 minutes before the bell. A late but correct call. The market settled on $385,275 in traded volume.
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