New research from Chainalysis shows cryptocurrencies once again acting as a financial “pressure valve” in Iran during crisis conditions.
On-chain data indicates that following the Feb. 28 U.S.–Israeli airstrikes, there was a sharp surge in Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) outflows from Iranian exchanges.
Within hours of the news breaking, hourly withdrawals jumped dramatically at times nearing or exceeding $2 million.
By March 2, cumulative outflows since Feb. 28 had reached approximately $10.3 million, well above typical baseline activity.
The pattern mirrors previous crisis-driven spikes, including the 2024 Kerman bombings and protest waves.
During those periods, a collapsing rial, persistent inflation, sanctions pressure, and political instability pushed many Iranians toward crypto as a capital preservation tool.
Notably, Bitcoin withdrawals surged ahead of the Jan. 8 internet blackout, then flatlined during the connectivity shutdown before resuming once access was restored, suggesting users anticipated instability and moved funds proactively.
What’s Driving The Latest Flows?
Chainalysis noted that the recent outflows likely reflect overlapping factors:
- Retail hedging: Users shifting funds into self-custody to guard against instability or restrictions.
- Exchange obfuscation: Sanctioned platforms moving funds to new wallets to reduce traceability, a tactic seen after the $90 million hack of Nobitex.
- State-linked flows: Actors tied to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps potentially using domestic exchanges for sanctions evasion and cross-border transfers.
Overall, it reinforces a familiar trend: geopolitical stress in Iran tends to trigger spikes in crypto activity, driven by retail capital flight, exchange maneuvering, and possible state-linked movements.
Image: Shutterstock
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