The stock market is bracing for a sea of red this Monday morning as geopolitical stability evaporated over the weekend. Following the launch of “Operation Epic Fury”—a massive U.S. and Israeli military campaign against Iran—investors are fleeing to safe-haven assets while equity futures signal a gap-down open.
Polymarket Odds Collapse
The sentiment on Polymarket, based on Polygon (CRYPTO: POL), reflects a near-certainty of a lower open.
The “Up” shares for the S&P 500 on March 2 have crashed to a mere 10% chance, a 40% drop from previous levels, as over $1.07 million in volume pours into the market.
War Footing Triggers Market Rout
By Sunday evening, the financial fallout was immediate and severe. Dow futures plummeted 428 points or 0.87%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures both slid more than 1%.
The volatility follows a weekend of high-intensity strikes involving B-2 stealth bombers and F-22 fighter jets targeting Iranian command centers, ballistic missile sites, and naval assets.
The human and political cost is fueling the panic. President Donald Trump addressed the nation on Sunday afternoon, confirming that three U.S. service members have been killed and five others seriously wounded.
In a sobering statement that rattled traders, Trump warned that more American casualties are likely, stating, “That’s the way it is“. This grim outlook, coupled with the death of Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has pushed the fear gauge into overdrive.
Commodities And Safe Havens Surge
As equities retreat, the war trade is in full effect:
- Oil: WTI Crude April 26 futures surged 7.3% to $71.90 as supply disruption fears in the Middle East intensified.
- Gold: April 26 futures jumped 2.55% to $5,381.90.
- U.S. Dollar: The DXY index rose 0.35% as investors sought the safety of the greenback.
With the S&P 500 already struggling through a bruising February, this military escalation threatens to push the index below the 6,800 mark as the opening bell approaches.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo courtesy: Shutterstock
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