Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is trading near $65,000, and historical midterm-year patterns suggest a near-term rally could push prices toward the low-$70,000 range.
The February Low, March High Playbook
Crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen said Bitcoin is closely tracking the same behavioural pattern seen in 2014, 2018 and 2022.
In those midterm years, typically the year after a post-halving peak, Bitcoin formed a local low in February before staging a counter-trend rally into early March, followed by renewed downside into spring.
- In 2014, Bitcoin bottomed on Feb. 25, rallied into March 3, then sold off into April.
- In 2018, it bottomed on Feb. 6, topped on March 5 and declined into April.
- In 2022, it found a low on Feb. 24, formed an early March top and then fell sharply through April and May.
According to Cowen, the current setup mirrors that structure. Bitcoin posted an initial local low on Feb. 6, followed by a secondary low on Feb. 24, aligning closely with prior cycles.
The $74,000 Resistance Flip
If the average midterm trajectory holds, Cowen expects Bitcoin to peak in early March at roughly 15% below its yearly open. With the 2026 yearly open near $87,000, that projection places a potential target around $74,000.
Technically, the level carries significance. The $74,000 zone acted as major structural support in April 2025. In classic bear market behaviour, broken support often flips into resistance. A relief rally into that region would represent a textbook retest before a broader downtrend resumes.
Cowen cautioned that a bounce into the low-to-mid $70,000 range should not be interpreted as a confirmed trend reversal. Historically, midterm years have produced lower highs that attract capital before extended weakness into late spring and early summer. (April, May, June).
If history repeats, he said, the upcoming rally will reflect a recurring structural pattern rather than the start of a new bull cycle.
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