Rocket Lab Corp. (NASDAQ:RKLB) shares extended their post-earnings decline into Friday, even after topping expectations on both revenue and earnings, as two analysts pointed to the same strong results but drew sharply different conclusions about the stock’s near-term trajectory.
- Rocket Lab stock is among today’s weakest performers. Why is RKLB stock dropping?
Both Citizens JMP Securities and Cantor Fitzgerald cited revenue beats and growing backlogs; their outlooks diverged: Citizens flagged execution and valuation risks, while Cantor highlighted scale and contract momentum as long-term drivers.
Execution Risks Could Temper Upside
Citizens JMP analyst Trevor Walsh maintained a Market Perform rating after Rocket Lab posted fourth-quarter revenue of $179.7 million, up 36% year-over-year and ahead of the $177.2 million consensus, with adjusted EBITDA of ($17.4 million) also topping expectations.
Walsh flagged the delay of Neutron’s first launch to the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026 from the first quarter of fiscal 2026 — caused by a third-party manufacturing defect that led to a Stage 1 tank rupture — as a potential drag on sentiment, even though management said the financial impact would be negligible.
He lowered his fiscal 2026 non-GAAP earnings per share estimate to a loss of 8 cents from a loss of 6 cents, and cut his fiscal 2027 estimate to 9 cents from 11 cents.
The stock is trading at 30.1 times the calendar 2027 estimated enterprise value-to-revenue, a 343% premium to the aerospace and defense peer group. Walsh said elevated valuation, reliance on government contracts, and execution risk around Neutron could limit near-term multiple expansion.
Growing Contract Pipeline Justifies Higher Stock Price
Cantor Fitzgerald analyst Andres Sheppard reiterated an Overweight rating and raised his price forecast to $85 from $72, pointing to record fiscal 2025 revenue of $601.8 million, 21 successful launches, and a backlog that roughly doubled to ~$1.85 billion from the prior quarter, with ~37% expected to be recognized within 12 months.
Despite the Neutron delay to the fourth quarter of 2026 — after the company said it will “completely replace the manufacturing process that introduced the defect” — Sheppard does not expect a material impact on the company’s long-term trajectory.
He raised his fiscal 2026 and fiscal 2027 revenue estimates to $871.4 million and $1.29 billion, respectively, and values the stock using a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) model, citing improved scale, higher average selling prices (ASPs), and backlog growth as support for his higher price forecast.
RKLB Price Action: Rocket Lab shares were down 9.55% at $65.70 at the time of publication on Friday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
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