Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan dismissed conspiracy theories blaming Jane Street and others for Bitcoin’s (CRYPTO: BTC) decline, arguing “a bunch of people who were long Bitcoin sold their Bitcoin exposure” as BTC consolidates between key Fibonacci levels.
The Boring Reality
Hougan on X pushed back against escalating conspiracy theories targeting different firms each week.
“First it was Binance and then it was Wintermute and then it was an unknown offshore macro hedge fund and then it was paper bitcoin and today it is Jane Street and next week it will be someone else,” Hougan wrote.
The actual reason is straightforward. People sold Bitcoin via spot, unwound leveraged positions, and wrote calls against their holdings.
They sold because of four-year cycle patterns, quantum computing fears, desires to invest in AI startups, and various other reasons.
Hougan argued sellers are mostly done and the market is bottoming. “This is a classic crypto winter and there will be a classic crypto spring,” he said. “People want someone to blame—I get it—but the reality is far more boring than that.”
The Technical Picture
Bitcoin is currently trading at the 0.382 Fibonacci level, which serves as a significant retracement support.
Right now, Bitcoin price is hovering around the 20 EMA, marking it as the immediate pivot point.
The close proximity of the 20 and 50 EMAs around the $66,800-$66,900 range creates a tight resistance that is currently limiting price movement.
The Fibonacci levels outline the trading roadmap. The 0.236 Fib level at $64,730 held firm during the recent market downturn. The next major resistance is at the 0.5 Fib level, which is at $69,873, followed by the 0.618 Fib at $72,172 and the 0.786 Fib at $75,445.
Bitcoin finds itself in a wedge formation, squeezed between a descending trendline from its recent highs and horizontal support in the $65,000-$66,000 range.
This kind of price compression usually leads to a significant breakout in either direction.
The Chaikin Money Flow is currently at 0.18, indicating positive buying pressure and accumulation, even though the price has been moving sideways.
Key support is located between $64,730 and $65,000. If this support holds, it maintains the current consolidation structure. However, if it breaks below, the next target would be $60,133, which represents the capitulation low.
On the resistance side, $69,873 is critical—if Bitcoin reclaims this level, it could shift momentum to a bullish trend, aiming for prices above $72,000.
Image: Shutterstock
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