The S&P 500 closed down 0.54% at 6,908.86 on Thursday, snapping a two-day winning streak. Shares of NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) fell more than 5% despite an upbeat earnings report and forecast, dragging chip stocks and the broader tech sector with it on the back of other disappointing software quarterly results. The market delivered its verdict on the quarter: good numbers, wrong story.
Now, Polygon-based (CRYPTO: POL) Polymarket is pricing in more of the same. The market for Friday opened at 64% “Down,” and 36% “Up,” with $43,926 in volume already placed against the question: “S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 27?”
Why That Number Matters
Thursday’s close puts the benchmark index back near the lower half of the 6,800–7,000 range it has been stuck in for weeks. The VIX Volatility Index has climbed to 18.62, signaling that traders are paying more for protection.
The bigger number is off the index itself. January’s delayed producer price index (PPI) report, including headline, core, and year-over-year data, will be out by 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, with analysts expecting 0.3% monthly growth. The PPI is a measure of wholesale inflation.
Friday also marks the final trading day of February — a rocky month that saw tech stocks bruised amid fears of AI disruption. If losses hold, the S&P 500 is on track for a 0.4% loss in February.
The Bull Countercase
The majority of S&P 500 stocks actually closed higher on Thursday — it was Nvidia’s outsized weight that dragged the index down. That’s a breadth argument bulls will lean on: the rot is concentrated, not broad. If PPI comes in at or below expectations, the relief trade could quickly flip the premarket tone.
At last check, S&P 500 futures were at 6,904.75, down by 15.25 points or 0.22%.
How The Previous Bet Played Out: The S&P 500 closed down 37 points on Thursday, and Polymarket punters called it correctly, with the “Down” outcome confirmed on $355,266 in volume.
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