SanDisk Corp (NASDAQ:SNDK) is bouncing on Thursday after a turbulent session, with shares climbing in early trading despite a high-profile short attack from Citron Research.
Citron Targets SNDK With Bear Case
Andrew Left‘s Citron Research announced a short position in SanDisk on Tuesday, arguing the NAND memory cycle is approaching a peak.
“Because they know the cycle is approaching a peak, and they’re not waiting for the bell,” Citron wrote, referencing Western Digital Corp (NASDAQ:WDC)‘s decision to sell a substantial chunk of its SNDK holdings roughly 25% below current prices in a secondary offering earlier this month.
Samsung Named The Core Threat
Citron’s bear case leans heavily on Samsung Electronics Co Ltd (OTCPK: SSNLF). “Samsung has a 30-year history of choosing market share over margins,” Citron wrote. “They wait for pure-plays like SanDisk to get comfortable at 50% gross margins, then flip the switch.”
The Nvidia Comparison Citron Rejects
Citron pushed back on investor sentiment, comparing SNDK to NVIDIA Corp (NASDAQ:NVDA): “The market is pricing SanDisk like it’s $NVDA. There’s one problem: NVIDIA has a moat. SanDisk sells a commodity.”
Goldman Sachs analyst Ryan Hammond noted in a Wednesday report that memory stocks trade at just 12 times forward earnings on average — well below the broader market — with SNDK at 8.8 times, suggesting earnings, not multiple expansion, have driven the stock’s 129.76% year-to-date surge.
Citron characterized current memory tightness as illusory. “With double the capacity of the 2018 peak waiting in the wings, this ‘shortage’ is a supply mirage that can vanish in a single earnings call,” the firm warned.
Earnings & Analyst Outlook
Following last quarter’s results, investors are now tracking the path toward the next reporting date on May 6.
- EPS Estimate: $10.58 (Up from Loss of 30 cents YoY)
- Revenue Estimate: $4.37 Billion (Up from $1.70 Billion YoY)
- Valuation: P/E ratio not provided
Analyst Consensus & Recent Actions: The stock carries a Buy Rating with an average price target of $492.18. Recent analyst moves include:
- Citigroup: Buy (Raises Target to $750.00) (Feb. 2)
- Barclays: Equal-Weight (Raises Target to $750.00) (Feb. 2)
- Jefferies: Buy (Raises Target to $700.00) (Jan. 30)
SNDK Price Action: SanDisk shares were up 3.39% at $653.80 during premarket trading on Thursday, according to Benzinga Pro data.
Photo: Tutik_P / Shutterstock
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