Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is headed for its worst month since June 2022, with analyst James Check, arguing every indicator shows bottom formation even as BTC is down to the low $60,000s.
The Worst Month Since Terra Collapse
Bitcoin is on track for its steepest monthly drop since June 2022 when TerraUSD’s implosion triggered the collapse of Three Arrows Capital and BlockFi.
Bitcoin is also set for a fifth straight monthly decline—its longest losing streak since 2018, another bruising period defined by the unraveling of an initial coin offering boom.
The sell-off began in October and accelerated after President Trump announced plans to raise global tariffs to 15%.
BTC Markets analyst Rachael Lucas said Trump’s tariff decision rattled risk assets broadly.
“Despite the ‘digital gold’ narrative, Bitcoin continues to trade as a risk asset. When macro fear spikes, capital rotates toward traditional safe havens. Bitcoin is not there yet.”
The ‘Accumulate Now’ Thesis
James Check argues Bitcoin exhibits textbook bottom formation characteristics across multiple indicators.
“Every mean reversion model, from technical to on-chain is trading within bottom formation levels, typically seen after the price capitulation event,” Check wrote as Bitcoin plunged through $63,000.
Check framed the choice starkly:
“Either Bitcoin is dead, will no longer mean revert, and all your models are broken. Or you should be ignoring the bears and quietly dollar cost averaging from here on.”
He acknowledged price could fall further, but argues time will be the bigger test.
The 2022 bear market saw Bitcoin essentially bottom at $17,600 in June, six months before the remembered $15,600 low in December.
The rest was waiting, then a final liquidity flush surrounding the FTX collapse.
Check concluded that this represents a de-risked setup for Bitcoin, questioning when investors should accumulate if not at these levels.
The Technical Reality
BTC is just 2% above the $61,000-$62,000 capitulation low.
The Supertrend at $65,992 and Parabolic SAR at $65,533 create dual resistance around $65,500-$66,000.
Both indicators sit overhead, confirming selling pressure dominates.
Critical support at $64,500-$65,500 broke decisively, now acting as resistance.
Bitcoin needs multiple 4-hour closes above $66,000 to confirm reclaim. Breaking below $61,000 triggers panic selling toward $58,000-$60,000 or $55,000.
IG Australia analyst Tony Sycamore noted Bitcoin edges closer to its 200-week moving average at $58,503. Whether it holds above this level—as it did in early February—could determine if prices stabilize.
Image: Shutterstock
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