Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) is consolidating around $65,000, but traders are watching a potential death cross that could determine the next move.
Is This Bitcoin’s Final Leg Down?
Bitcoin is approaching a potential 3-day death cross between its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, a signal that crypto analyst Ali Martinez says has historically preceded the final leg of bear markets.
Looking back to 2013, 2017 and 2021, Bitcoin had already suffered steep declines before each 3-day death cross appeared.
In every case, the signal was followed by another sharp drop of roughly 45% to 52%, marking final capitulation before a macro bottom formed.
After peaking in October 2025 and falling more than 52%, Bitcoin is now nearing another projected 3-day 50/200 death cross in late February.
If historical patterns repeat, downside targets could extend toward $40,000, implying about 30% further downside, or even $30,000, representing a 50% drop from current levels.
While the setup does not guarantee another selloff, Martinez noted that similar structures in prior cycles aligned with macro bottoms forming only after one last major decline.
Key Levels Must Be Reclaimed
Prominent crypto analyst Kevin said Bitcoin closed the week below two major support levels: the 200-week exponential moving average and the higher time frame 0.703 Fibonacci retracement, both of which had held in recent weeks.
If Bitcoin fails to quickly reclaim those levels, he sees the path of least resistance leading toward the $60,000 to $56,000 range.
That zone includes the higher time frame golden pocket and the 200-week simple moving average.
Although some lower time frame indicators are beginning to turn bullish, broader money flows remain firmly negative.
Without a meaningful return of positive spot inflows, Kevin believes Bitcoin could continue to drift lower.
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