Citrini Research, the macro-focused investment publication, published a thought experiment on Sunday, framed as a fictional “Macro Memo” dated June 30, 2028.
The piece, titled “The 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis,” is explicitly labeled a scenario, not a prediction, but its implications for India’s IT sector are stark enough to demand attention from equity traders.
The central thesis: if AI capabilities continue improving at their current trajectory, the cost of software development could collapse toward zero, gutting the labor arbitrage model that underpins India’s $200 billion annual information technology export industry.
The $200 Billion Export Implosion
At the heart of Citrini’s scenario is a brutal reassessment of India’s competitive moat. The research note argues that India’s IT services sector was built on a single value proposition: Indian developers cost a fraction of their American counterparts.
That moat, the authors contend, evaporates when AI enters the picture.
“The marginal cost of an AI coding agent had collapsed to, essentially, the cost of electricity,” the note states, adding that Tata Consultancy Services, Infosys Ltd. (NYSE:INFY), and Wipro Ltd. (NYSE:WIT) “saw contract cancellations accelerate through 2027” in this modeled scenario.
India currently exports over $200 billion annually in IT services, described in the note as “the single largest contributor to India’s current account surplus and the offset that financed its persistent goods trade deficit.”
In Citrini’s scenario, as that surplus evaporates, the rupee falls 18% against the dollar in just four months, ultimately prompting the International Monetary Fund to begin “preliminary discussions” with New Delhi by the first quarter of 2028.
How Agentic Coding Triggers the Cascade
Citrini traces the disruption to late 2025, when agentic coding tools made a major leap in capability. Tools like Claude Code and Codex reportedly enabled skilled developers to recreate mid-market SaaS products in weeks, reshaping enterprise buy-versus-build decisions.
As enterprises realize they can build instead of buy, Citrini argues the IT outsourcing model begins to erode. If Fortune 500 firms can replicate six-figure solutions internally in weeks, the case for large offshore IT contracts weakens significantly.
The authors are careful to distinguish the piece from outright forecasting, noting: “We are certain some of these scenarios won’t materialize. We’re equally certain that machine intelligence will continue to accelerate.”
Photo by Jonathan Weiss via Shutterstock
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