Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has elevated Ali Larijani into a de facto crisis manager role as Tehran braces for a possible clash with US and tries to keep the state functioning under pressure. The shift comes as President Donald Trump has set a 10-to-15-day deadline for a nuclear deal and ordered major military buildup steps in the Middle East that have already jolted oil markets on fears of disruptions in key shipping routes.
The New York Times reports Larijani now holds the top national security job as head of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council and has taken on a widening set of duties that go well beyond his formal title. According to the publication, his growing prominence has sidelined President Masoud Pezeshkian, who has sought to lower expectations by stressing that he is a doctor by profession and not a career politician, and by playing down prospects for resolving Iran’s issues.
Trump’s ultimatum has raised the stakes for negotiations that have continued even as military planning accelerates on both sides. U.S. and Iranian negotiators have made headway on guiding principles in talks, but major gaps remain, including Trump’s demand for zero uranium enrichment by Iran.
Are U.S. Strikes Imminent For Iran?
Iran’s leadership is operating as if U.S. strikes could come soon, according to the Times, even while diplomacy continues. The report said Tehran moved its forces to maximum readiness and has placed missile launchers near the Iraqi frontier and along the Persian Gulf coastline to hold Israel and U.S. bases at risk.
Iran has periodically shut its airspace to run missile tests and held drills in the Persian Gulf that briefly interrupted traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, the Times said. Those steps come as energy traders have already bid crude higher on concerns that any fighting could snarl transit through the Gulf of Oman and nearby corridors.
Khamenei has paired internal planning with public threats, saying last week, “The most powerful military in the world might receive such a slap that it won’t be able to get on its feet,” according to the outlet. Trump, meanwhile, has mixed escalation with political calculations, with advisers urging him to keep attention on domestic economic issues ahead of midterm elections even as military preparations intensify.
How Larijani Became Iran’s Key Decision Maker
Larijani’s remit, as described by the Times, has included directing a violent crackdown on protests and working to contain dissent while coordinating with partners such as Russia and regional players including Qatar and Oman. The same report said he has also been tasked with overseeing nuclear discussions with the United States and preparing governance plans if conflict breaks out while U.S. forces gather in the area.
During a visit to Doha this month, Larijani told Al Jazeera, “We are ready in our country,” adding, “We are not looking for war, and we won’t start the war. But if they force it on us, we will respond.”
The Times also described Khamenei ordering layered succession planning across posts he personally fills, naming multiple backup options for key military and government roles and delegating authority to a small circle if communications fail.
As reported by The New York Times, Khamenei’s inner circle includes figures such as Maj. Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi, Parliament speaker Brig. Gen. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf and chief of staff Ali Asghar Hejazi, with Larijani positioned among the most trusted. The paper said Khamenei also created a new National Defense Council led by Adm. Ali Shamkhani after a June surprise attack by Israel exposed vulnerabilities in Iran’s command structure.
Shifting Dynamics in U.S.-Iran Relations
This shift in Iran‘s leadership dynamics has been underscored by President Trump’s recent calls for regime change, stating, “It’s time to look for new leadership in Iran,” as he urged Iranians to persist in their protests against the current regime. His comments come after a period marked by dwindling protests and significant violence, resulting in thousands of deaths among demonstrators over recent weeks.
Trump’s evolving stance also reflects a more diplomatic approach, as he commended Ayatollah Khamenei for halting the execution of over 800 individuals, highlighting the complexity of U.S.-Iran relations amid rising tensions. As military options are considered, the implications of Trump’s remarks may shape both negotiation strategies and potential conflict scenarios, particularly as U.S. strikes loom on the horizon.
The Rising Stakes In Middle East Tensions
Trump’s posture marks a sharp turn from his campaign theme of limiting overseas commitments, and Republican strategist Rob Godfrey has warned that a prolonged conflict could cost support among voters drawn to an “America First” approach. Administration allies have argued the tougher foreign policy improves U.S. security and produces economic benefits, but the risk of a widening confrontation has become a political variable as well as a military one.
Market indicators have been moving alongside the geopolitics, with oil climbing on shipping-lane anxiety and U.S. stock futures ticking higher in overnight trading, including small gains in S&P 500, Nasdaq and Dow Jones futures. Separately, comments tied to Diego Garcia were followed by a jump in assessed odds of U.S. or Israeli military action against Iran from 24% to 38% within hours.
Recent Comments