U.S. heavy vehicle sales are one of those unglamorous but powerful leading indicators. When fleets are confident about freight demand 6 to 12 months out, they order trucks. When they’re nervous, they slam the brakes on capex.
The 2025 market saw a retreat, even if the pace of decline has shifted.
According to the American Truck Dealers, total commercial truck sales fell 13.6% in 2025. Medium-duty volumes were down 13.9% year over year, and heavy-duty off 13.3%. December marked the sixth consecutive month of year-over-year declines for Class 8, and November’s 12,479 units were the weakest monthly tally since the pandemic shock of May 2020.
January offered some relief. On a seasonally adjusted annual basis, heavy truck purchases jumped back to 459,000 after collapsing to 339,000 in October and November—the lowest level since 2009. Orders also perked up
ACT Research pegged December Class 8 orders at 42,700 units, up 118% month over month. But zoom out, and the year-over-year improvement is modest. This isn’t a demand boom; it’s a partial normalization after fleets froze spending in 2024.
Leading Signs
Heavy truck sales are forward-looking, since fleets buy based on expected, not current, demand. A typical unit can last 10 to 15 years, but in normal conditions, companies tend to switch them much earlier. Still, this optionality gives leeway to withhold investments if they expect weaker goods movement ahead.
Freight data confirms the caution. The Cass Freight Index has declined for 23 consecutive months. January came in at 0.886, a level not seen since the early pandemic period. That makes this the longest sustained freight volume contraction since the 2008–09 recession.
When shipment volumes fall for nearly two years straight, it’s hard to argue the goods economy is firing on all cylinders.
Tightening Conditions
Despite a negative trend, 2025 saw a different dynamic compared to 2024, when spot rates collapsed and pressured small carriers.
In 2025, spot rates started to firm, particularly over the holiday season, but volumes remained weak. That divergence—soft volumes, firmer pricing—suggests capacity is exiting the market. Carriers that operated at or below breakeven through 2023 and 2024 are shutting down, tightening supply.
Regulatory and trade costs are an additional issue. The industry is bracing for EPA27 emissions standards, which ACT estimates could add up to $8,000 per new heavy-duty truck—less than initially feared but still material. On top of that, there are tariffs on imported trucks and parts. Higher component costs are reflected directly in sticker prices. Pre-buys ahead of the new rules were expected but haven’t fully materialized, signaling caution.
The situation abroad isn’t any better. The data from trans.info shows that Europe’s truck market also contracted in 2025, with registrations down 6.2% across the EU as diesel retains a dominant 93% share (hardly a sign of a booming green transition). Meanwhile, in Australia, OwnerDriver reported that January truck sales slipped, too. The sector recorded just 2,464 sales, compared with 2,786 in the first month of 2025.
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