The odds of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei being removed from power have increased on prediction markets amid rising U.S.-Iran tensions.
Heightened Tensions
The U.S.-Iran relations have been tense for a long time, but there has been an escalation in recent times, with President Donald Trump hinting at action against the Islamic Republic.
Khamenei, in the latest series of escalations, warned of a “slap” to the “strongest army in the world” amid live-fire drills that resulted in a temporary closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital oil and shipping waterway.
Here’s What Prediction Markets Think
Data from Kalshi, a federally authorized betting platform, shows that over $21.8 million has been bet on the contract “Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader?”
The odds of Khamenei being removed from power have risen sharply, with bettors placing a 48% probability on the Supreme Leader being removed before September 1, 2026, climbing 12%.
Some bettors expect a quicker timeline, with the July 1, 2026, option having 42% probability, followed by April 1, 2026, which has a 30% probability, as per bettors, up by 12%.
Internal And External Issues
Khamenei not only faces issues from the U.S., but also internally. There have been protests across the country, in which activists claim over 7,000 people were killed, according to a report by AP.
World Leader To Be Removed By 2027
Another contract on Kalshi, which is betting on which world leader will be removed by 2027 places the odds of Khamenei being removed at 63%, up by 9%.
Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
Photo courtesy: Shutterstock/ saeediex
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