Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has dropped roughly 29% over the past month, prompting debate over whether the bear phase is nearing its end, or if more downside is ahead.
Historical Cycles: 365 Days To Bottom?
Trader Altcoin Sherpa examined prior Bitcoin cycles for context.
In the 2017–2018 cycle there was a 75–85% drawdown, around 365 days from all-time high to final bottom. Meanwhile, the 2021–2022 cycle had a similar magnitude decline, with a similar almost 1 year to bottom.
Both cycles ended with a major capitulation event (e.g., the 2018 $6,000→$3,000 collapse and the FTX-driven crash in 2022), followed by 2–4 months of accumulation.
However, Sherpa notes the 2024–2025 bull run was slower and more consolidation-heavy compared to the vertical expansions of earlier cycles, which could mean this downturn behaves differently.
He argues several structural differences may shorten the timeline: the presence of spot ETFs, reduced speculative excess compared to prior peaks, stronger support zones in the $50,000–$70,000 region and altcoin froth already largely flushed.
Because of this, Sherpa suggests the current bear market may not require a full 365 days to complete.
Has Capitulation Already Happened?
Sherpa floated the idea that the drop from $100,000 to $60,000 may have already served as the primary capitulation move, potentially marking the transition into an accumulation phase, though he acknowledges a final flush lower remains possible.
Despite macro risks, he expects accumulation to last several months and maintains a long-term bullish outlook, anticipating another strong Bitcoin expansion cycle.
Bull vs. Bear Case At A Crossroads
Market commentator Milk Road highlighted that Bitcoin is at a critical juncture after four consecutive weekly losses: the 2021 all-time high level and 100-week moving average.
- Bulls point to monthly RSI near 40 and only ~55% of supply in profit, both levels that marked prior cycle bottoms, suggesting sellers may be exhausted.
- Bears argue there’s been no true capitulation yet, noting past drawdowns exceeded 77% and models suggest a possible move toward $55,000.
Milk Road concluded that while several indicators are approaching historical bottom zones, no clear confirmation has emerged. The next few weeks could determine whether Bitcoin is entering accumulation or preparing for another leg down.
Image: Shutterstock
Recent Comments