Super Bowl LX is not only a major sporting event but also a significant moment for prediction markets.
On Sunday, the Seattle Seahawks will face the New England Patriots, drawing attention to platforms that let users trade contracts on real-world outcomes, from game results to halftime performances. This shift represents a growing trend in how people engage with sports betting.
According to Forbes, the trading volume for prediction markets during the Super Bowl is expected to hit $3.1 billion in 2026, marking a 39% increase from the previous year. However, this boom is part of a larger issue, as the majority of bets are placed with unregulated operators.
“Nearly four dollars in every five wagered online on the Super Bowl will go straight to unlicensed operators,” said Matthew Holt, CEO of Gaming Compliance International.
Prediction Markets: The New Gambling Frontier
Kalshi, a regulated exchange, has seen its Super Bowl trading volume increase fivefold, while Crypto.com’s new app has introduced over 300 markets for the event. These platforms have an advantage over traditional sportsbooks as they operate in all 50 states, unlike legal sports betting, which is only available in 30 states.
“If you’re looking at one event that defines how people express their fandom, how people bet on things, it is the Super Bowl,” Ismail Vali, president of GCI told the outlet.
The prediction market model allows users to adjust their positions frequently, generating continuous engagement and fees. This dynamic is different from traditional sports betting, where bets are placed and left until the game concludes. The NFL has noticed this trend, with Executive Vice President Jeff Miller calling prediction markets “innovative” and “dynamic.”
Will Super Bowl LX Spark Regulatory Change?
As Forbes noted, the surge in prediction markets raises questions about regulation. Platforms describe themselves as “information markets,” regulated by the CFTC, rather than as gambling entities. However, the American Gaming Association sees them as a form of sports betting.
Vali commented, “To most of the legal regulated betting industry, these things look and smell like betting.” The legal landscape remains complex, with state lawsuits and industry challenges mounting. Prediction markets currently account for a small fraction of legal sports betting profitability but represent a growing share on the unregulated side.
The Explosive Growth Of Unregulated Betting
The rise of prediction markets comes at a challenging time for regulated gambling. The number of legal online gaming operators in the U.S. has dropped significantly, with many unable to compete against unregulated platforms. Vali emphasized the need for comprehensive legalization efforts, stating,
“Legalization needs monitoring, policing, enforcement, and optimization.” The future of prediction markets will be tested beyond the Super Bowl, with events like March Madness and the NBA playoffs serving as potential turning points for regulatory acceptance.
The debate continues over whether these markets benefit consumers or add another layer of complexity to an already challenging gambling landscape.
Image: Shutterstock/SAJE
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