Wintermute Ventures says crypto is becoming the clearing layer for the internet economy in 2026, with prediction markets set to replace traditional insurance by pricing specific risks that were previously untradeable.
Prediction Markets Replace Insurance
Prediction markets are moving beyond consumer products into financial tools that replace legacy insurance, according to Wintermute’s 2026 outlook.
Instead of buying broad hurricane insurance for an entire region, users can now hedge against specific wind speeds in exact locations during defined timeframes.
These markets price individual risks directly rather than bundling them into expensive policies.
Wintermute expects new markets to trade measures of perception, sentiment, and collective opinion—assets that were never priced before.
Stablecoins And Settlement Infrastructure
Stablecoins enable programmable payments, but the industry lacks proper settlement infrastructure. Too many different stablecoins across chains create friction.
The fix is coordination infrastructure that handles conversion between stablecoins without forcing users to manage currency risk.
Think of it as banking infrastructure rebuilt for crypto, with settlement in seconds instead of days.
Token Economics Shift To Sustainable Revenue
Companies launching tokens without sustainable revenue are losing credibility.
Wintermute predicts fewer token launches at inception as teams focus on proving business models first.
When tokens do launch, they’ll come after product-market fit is clear with proven revenues. Tokens without clear value capture struggle to maintain demand beyond speculation.
Privacy Enables Institutional Adoption
Privacy shifted from regulatory liability to enabler. Participants can prove compliance without exposing raw data through new cryptographic methods.
Regulatory clarity transitioned from hurdle to distribution channel.
The GENIUS Act in the US, MiCA in Europe, and Hong Kong’s stablecoin regime provide frameworks for legacy institutions to replace traditional systems with faster settlement rails.
What This Means For Investors
Infrastructure companies replacing legacy clearing, settlement, and custody functions capture value as crypto becomes foundational to the financial system.
Wintermute Ventures backs teams building core market infrastructure, data verification layers, and tools that make prediction markets work in real-world applications.
Regions with clear rules and fast approvals will attract capital and experimentation while slower jurisdictions fall behind.
Image source: Shutterstock
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