Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) has remained locked in a tight range for nearly 60 days, with selling pressure preventing a sustained move higher.
Why Bitcoin Stagnation Signals Deeper Issues
Wintermute Research notes that while buyers continue to step in near the $85,000 level, demand has not been strong enough to push Bitcoin decisively higher.
As a result, BTC remains stuck in the middle of its range. Institutional players appear to be actively trading this range, while retail participation remains subdued.
U.S.-led selling is currently driving market direction.
Record weekly outflows from Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs, alongside a negative Coinbase premium, indicate U.S. counterparties are net sellers.
In contrast, Europe is showing modest buying interest, while Asia remains largely neutral.
Since ETF flows have been the primary driver of momentum this cycle, a meaningful reversal in flows is likely required for Bitcoin to reclaim the mid-$90,000s with conviction.
Are Institutional Sellers Shaping Market Trends?
Macro conditions remain conflicted.
Gold and silver are printing all-time highs on dollar weakness and debasement narratives, yet Bitcoin has not meaningfully benefited from its “digital gold” positioning.
Volatility remains compressed despite elevated macro uncertainty, pointing to low participation and cautious positioning.
Although Bitcoin has partially decoupled from equities since January, Wintermute cautions that a genuine risk-off move would likely see correlations with the Nasdaq reassert themselves.
Key Events That Could Ignite Bitcoin’s Breakout
The coming week is packed with potential catalysts that could finally resolve the range.
Key events include the FOMC decision and Powell’s tone, ongoing tariff negotiations, and major “Magnificent 7” earnings, particularly guidance tied to AI spending.
Dollar dynamics are also in focus, with speculation around coordinated FX intervention and rising government shutdown risks potentially pressuring the dollar and supporting risk assets.
For now, the range remains intact until proven otherwise.
The $85,000 level has been tested repeatedly and is either forming a strong structural floor or setting a trap if macro conditions deteriorate sharply.
With volatility compressed and event risk elevated, a decisive move appears likely, but direction will depend on ETF flows, the dollar, and broader risk sentiment.
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