President Donald Trump has received multiple US intelligence reports concluding that Iran’s ruling establishment is under mounting strain, with its grip on power weaker than at any time since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, according to people familiar with the assessments.
Protests And Deepening Economic Woes Rattle Tehran
The reports, first described in detail by the New York Times on Monday, say nationwide protests that flared late last year rattled Iran’s leadership as demonstrations spread into cities and regions long viewed as bastions of support for Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. They also emphasize that Iran’s economy is in historically poor shape, compounding political unrest.
Though the street protests have largely ebbed, analysts tell the NYT that the underlying grievances remain acute. A collapsing currency, rolling power outages and soaring food costs have fueled intermittent demonstrations since December, leaving Tehran with limited tools to ease the pressure on households. Authorities relied heavily on security forces and mass arrests to restore order, a response rights groups say has deepened public anger.
Deadliest Unrest Since Revolution Intensifies Regime Pressure
The latest unrest is Iran’s deadliest anti-government turmoil since 1979, killing more than 12,000 people, according to some activist estimates, highlighting the scale of the crisis. Meanwhile, US sanctions and new tariff threats from Trump have intensified the country’s economic isolation and hit oil revenues, even as global crude prices have not always moved in Washington’s favor.
Against that backdrop, the US military has quietly reinforced its posture. As of Monday, an Associated Press report shows that the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and three accompanying warships, armed with cruise missiles, were operating in the US Central Command area in the western Indian Ocean, positioning American forces to launch strikes on Iran within days if ordered, according to US officials.
US Buildup Fuels Uncertainty Over Next Steps
“President Trump is consistently briefed on intelligence matters around the world. It would be a dereliction of duty as commander in chief if he were not regularly briefed on these matters,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said in a statement shared with NYT. “With respect to Iran, President Trump continues to closely monitor the situation.”
Trump and some of his advisers see Iran’s turmoil as a strategic opening, even as US allies warn a miscalculation could destabilize energy markets and widen the conflict across the Middle East.
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