Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) remains stuck around $90,000 level, despite global equity markets and commodities continuing their multi-month rally.
Historical Correlation Broken
The crypto market is exhibiting an extreme divergence from broader equities, most notably in Ethereum‘s (CRYPTO: ETH) failure to track the Russell 2000 despite a long history of close correlation, prominent analyst Kevin noted.
Historically, the two have moved together roughly 90% of the time, particularly during risk-on environments.
A prolonged decoupling of this magnitude, especially while the Russell 2000 is in price discovery, has not been observed before.
The divergence suggests either a lagged response from crypto markets or lingering structural damage following the Oct. 10 dislocation.
While mid- and small-cap equities are leading performance and macro conditions are the strongest in more than five years, crypto remains a clear outlier, continuing to experience capital outflows instead of participating in the broader rally.
Bitcoin Consolidates As Internal Conditions Improve
Bitcoin’s repeated failures to break above $100,000 contrasts with strong gains in traditional indices such as the Nasdaq and S&P 500.
Glassnode data indicates that while BTC remains range-bound, internal market conditions are gradually improving.
Spot market data shows easing sell pressure, rising volumes, and a shift toward positive buy-sell imbalances, though demand remains fragile.
A key positive has been a sharp reversal to net inflows into U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, signalling renewed institutional accumulation, even as elevated holder profitability increases the risk of near-term profit-taking.
On-chain activity is also stabilizing, with improvements in active addresses, transfer volumes, and modestly higher fees.
While Bitcoin remains in consolidation, improving spot dynamics and institutional flows suggest the groundwork for a more constructive market structure is slowly forming.
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