Cantor Fitzgerald doubled down on its bullish stance for Rocket Lab Corp.(NASDAQ:RKLB) as the company heads into a critical 2026.
Following a record-breaking third quarter and a massive contract win from the U.S. Space Development Agency (SDA) analysts reiterated an Overweight rating, naming Rocket Lab as the premier alternative to SpaceX.
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Record 2025 Sets the Stage
Rocket Lab enters 2026 on the heels of its most successful year to date. In 2025, the company met its ambitious target of 21 Electron launches, bringing its total successful mission count to 79.
Rocket Lab holds the position of the second most active launcher in the U.S. and the global leader among publicly traded space companies.
Financially, the company is hitting its stride. Rocket Lab reported a Q3 revenue beat of approximately $155 million, the highest in its history.
The company’s contracted backlog surged to $1.1 billion, with management expecting to recognize roughly 57% of that as revenue within the next 12 months.
$805 Million Game-Changer
The most significant recent catalyst for Rocket Lab was the award of the SDA Tranche 3 contract. Valued at $805 million, the firm fixed-priced agreement is the largest in the company’s history and effectively doubled its total backlog.
Under the contract, Rocket Lab will design and manufacture 18 missile warning, tracking and defense space vehicles for low Earth orbit. It follows the SDA Tranche 2 award of $515 million, which has moved into full-scale production.
Cantor analysts see these massive government wins as proof of Rocket Lab’s evolution from a small-satellite launcher into a dominant prime contractor.
2026: The Year of Neutron
While the Electron rocket remains a reliable workhorse, all eyes are on the debut of Neutron, Rocket Lab’s medium-lift reusable vehicle.
Cantor highlighted the first Neutron flight, targeted to launch in the first half of 2026, as the single most material catalyst for the stock.
Management expects Neutron to arrive at the launchpad in Q1, with the maiden flight shortly thereafter. Neutron is expected to dramatically shift the company’s unit economics and serve as the only viable commercial competitor to SpaceX’s Falcon 9.
The Bottom Line
Cantor sees some downside risks for Rocket Lab such as potential Neutron delays, regulatory hurdles or supply-chain disruptions, but the firm expressed deep confidence in Rocket Lab’s “launch heritage” and its transition into a space infrastructure giant.
RKLB Price Action: Rocket Lab shares were down slightly on Wednesday, trading at $86.37, according to data from Benzinga Pro.
Photo courtesy of Rocket Lab Corp.
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