Editor’s Note: This article has been updated to correct stock price action.
Novavax Inc (NASDAQ:NVAX) shares are trading higher. Reports show a rise in respiratory illnesses across the United States. Here’s what’s going on.
Novavax stock is among today’s top performers. Why are NVAX shares rallying?
An Outlook On The Respiratory Illness Environment
The CDC said on Friday, Jan. 9, 2026, that respiratory illness activity remains high nationwide. Flu cases are elevated and expected to stay that way for several more weeks. RSV levels are also high in many regions, with emergency room visits and hospitalizations increasing among children ages 0–4. COVID‑19 activity is still low but trending upward.
The organization classified the 2025-26 flu season as “moderately severe” for the first time, with estimates of at least 11 million illnesses, 120,000 hospitalizations and 5,000 deaths so far this season. This compares to at least 5.3 million illnesses, 63,000 hospitalizations and 2,700 deaths in the week ended December 28, 2024.
Some of the numbers dipped or leveled off this week, but the CDC says that’s likely because holiday schedules affected when people sought care or how cases were reported, not because the flu season has peaked. Flu activity across the country is still high and is expected to stay elevated for several more weeks.
The elevated respiratory illness activity seems to be driving increased attention to vaccine manufacturers as the flu season continues.
Moderna’s Updated Outlook
Moderna offered a tighter outlook for next year. The company now expects about $1.9 billion in 2025 revenue It also trimmed its expected 2025 operating expenses by $200 million and now sees its year‑end cash balance landing around $8.1 billion, giving it more financial breathing room.
Looking ahead, Moderna still plans for up to 10% revenue growth in 2026 while continuing to cut costs. The company is also gearing up for a big pipeline year, with potential first approvals for its flu and flu/COVID combo vaccines, along with key pivotal trial results in oncology, rare diseases and infectious diseases. These developments could broaden its pipeline beyond COVID‑19 and position it more strongly in a year when respiratory illness remains a major public‑health focus.
Is Novavax Positioned For A Major Breakout?
Novavax is currently showing a strong technical setup, trading significantly above its key moving averages. This positioning suggests bullish momentum, particularly as the stock is 24.8% above its 20-day SMA and 23.9% above its 50-day SMA, indicating a potential for further upward movement.
The RSI is currently at 64.94, which is in neutral territory but nearing overbought conditions. This level suggests that while there is positive momentum, traders should be cautious of a potential pullback if the RSI crosses above 70.
MACD is above its signal line, indicating bullish momentum in the stock. This suggests that the current trend may have strength, making it a key indicator for traders to watch for continued upward movement.
Key support is at $7.50, while resistance is at $9.00. If the stock approaches these levels, a break above resistance could signal a continuation of the uptrend, while a drop below support might indicate a reversal.
The death cross occurred in December when the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA. This event typically signals a bearish trend, so traders should be mindful of this as they assess the stock’s future movements.
Looking at the 12-month performance, NVAX has gained only 0.81%, reflecting a relatively flat trend over the longer term. This suggests that while there may be short-term volatility, the stock has not established a strong upward trajectory in the past year.
Currently, the stock is positioned at 65.1% of its 52-week range, indicating it’s closer to the high of $10.64 than the low of $5.01. This positioning suggests that while there is potential for further gains, traders should remain cautious of overbought conditions.
NVAX Price Action: Novavax shares were up 12.39% at $8.71 at the time of publication on Tuesday, according to Benzinga Pro.
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