Prediction markets are signaling deep skepticism that President Donald Trump‘s proposed $2,000 “tariff dividend” checks will reach Americans in the first half of 2026, with traders giving virtually no chance of an early-year payout.
Betting On Delay: Creation Vs. Cash
Data from prediction platforms reveals a sharp divergence between the program’s potential creation and the actual delivery of funds.
On Polymarket, traders are giving the administration a coin-flip chance, pricing in a 45% probability that Trump will successfully create the tariff dividend program by June 30.
However, markets are far more pessimistic about Americans seeing that money quickly. According to Kalshi, the odds of actually receiving a check “Before June” sit at just 15%—a significant 30-point gap compared to the creation odds.
This disparity suggests that even if the policy is enacted by mid-year, bettors anticipate bureaucratic or legislative hurdles will delay the physical payouts for months.
See Also: Trump’s Tariffs — And The Art Of The Rebound
Administration Timeline And Hurdles
This market pessimism aligns with recent administration statements pushing back the timeline.
President Trump indicated the target for issuing checks is “mid-2026 or little bit later.”
Furthermore, officials like Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and NEC Director Kevin Hassett have emphasized that the proposal requires congressional approval to proceed.
The Revenue Gap
Beyond legislative hurdles, the math presents a major challenge. Analyses indicate a “massive arithmetic gap,” with the program’s cost vastly outpacing tariff revenues.
The Tax Foundation estimates the plan could cost up to $606.8 billion annually, far exceeding projected 2026 tariff revenues of $207.5 billion.
Adding to the uncertainty, the government collected less in customs duties in November than in October.
US Benchmarks End 2025 On Positive Note
In 2025, the S&P 500 was 16.65% higher, whereas the Nasdaq Composite and Dow Jones gained 20.54% and 13.38%, respectively.
However, the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSE:SPY) and Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (NASDAQ:QQQ), which track the S&P 500 index and Nasdaq 100 index, respectively, closed lower on Wednesday. The SPY was down 0.74% at $681.92, while the QQQ declined 0.83% to $614.31, according to Benzinga Pro data.
The futures of Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq 100 indices were higher on Friday.
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Disclaimer: This content was partially produced with the help of AI tools and was reviewed and published by Benzinga editors.
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