Gold and crude climbed together Monday as escalating U.S. actions toward Venezuela introduced fresh geopolitical uncertainty into global markets.
The yellow metal – as tracked by the iShares Gold Trust (NYSE:GLD) – rose 2.5% to a fresh record near $4,440 an ounce, while the West Texas Intermediate crude rose 2.6% – its best session in two months – to $58 a barrel.
Gold Finds New Fuel
Over the weekend, U.S. forces intercepted another oil tanker accused of transporting sanctioned Venezuelan crude, marking the second such seizure this month.
The White House later confirmed that the Coast Guard was actively pursuing an additional vessel, alleging it was operating under a false flag while subject to a judicial seizure order.
“The risk of further escalation, particularly if it spreads to Venezuelan allies such as China or Russia, has added a geopolitical risk premium to gold,” said Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, in a note.
Beyond geopolitics, macro factors are also lining up in gold’s favor. Cooling inflation and signs of labor market weakness have pushed the probability of three Federal Reserve rate cuts in 2026 to nearly 40%.
A softer dollar, steady central bank buying, and renewed ETF inflows have further supported the blowout 2025 rally. Gold is up 67% year-to-date, on track for its best annual performance since 1978.
From a technical standpoint, gold has decisively broken above its October highs near $4,382, a level that now serves as key support, according to the analyst.
LPL’s technical models indicate a minimum upside target of $4,875, based on the size of the prior trading range.
Momentum indicators remain stretched. Gold’s Relative Strength Index has climbed to 76, and prices are trading roughly 23% above the 200-day moving average. While overbought by traditional measures, LPL notes that past record-setting rallies often extended further before buyer fatigue emerged.
Betting Markets Signal Rising Political Risk
Prediction markets are also reacting swiftly to the Venezuela standoff.
Traders on Polymarket currently assign a 60% probability that U.S. forces seize another Venezuela-linked oil ship by Dec. 31, with a 34% chance of that happening as soon as Dec. 26.
Markets tied to Maduro’s political future show elevated expectations for a leadership change in Venezuela.
Contracts pricing Maduro out by March 31, 2026 have attracted nearly $2 million in trading volume and imply a 39% probability, while odds rise to 56% for him being out of power by June 2026.
Meanwhile, expectations for direct U.S.–Venezuela military engagement by March 31, 2026 sit at 48%, slightly lower than the prior day’s 51%, but still suggesting traders see a substantial escalation risk.
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