XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) holders that bet on $10 in 2025 are down 8% since the start of the year, refuting the wide-spread belief at the start of 2025 that 2025 would be a positive year for altcoins.
Reason #1: SEC Lawsuit Dragged Till August
The SEC vs. Ripple lawsuit didn’t conclude until Aug. 22 when the court clerk certified that both parties dropped their appeals.
The delay was not random. Former SEC Chair Gary Gensler filed a last-minute appeal just five days before Donald Trump fired him from office.
It was similar to what happened in 2020, when Jay Clayton filed the original lawsuit on his final day as SEC chair.
Because of that appeal, the case stayed alive for months longer than expected.
As long as the lawsuit was still open, XRP could not break out.
Big institutions stayed away, ETF issuers could not move forward, and every rally stalled.
Reason #2: ETFs Didn’t Launch Till November
XRP spot ETFs didn’t go live until November, delayed by both the lawsuit and the government shutdown.
Six of seven ETF issuers updated their S-1 filings on August 22—the day the case officially ended—to confirm the lawsuit was resolved.
Then the government shutdown forced another delay.
Paul Atkins at the SEC provided a workaround by allowing issuers to file amendments without delay clauses, triggering a 20-day countdown that let ETFs launch even during the shutdown.
But the damage was done as ETFs arrived too late in 2025 to fuel the institutional buying wave retail expected.
Reason #3: CLARITY Act Still Hasn’t Passed
The CLARITY Act, the market structure bill meant to give banks and institutions clear rules for using crypto, is still not law.
The House passed its version earlier this year, but the bill remains stuck in the Senate.
As of late December, lawmakers have pushed the next step, a formal markup vote, into early 2026.
Three unresolved issues continue to hold the bill back which are stablecoin yield restrictions, Trump family conflicts of interest, and DeFi regulation.
Banks successfully blocked stablecoin issuers from paying interest under the GENIUS Act, but they now want that restriction expanded into broader market structure legislation.
Their concern is simple as yield-bearing stablecoins threaten traditional bank deposits.
Additionally, several Democrats refuse to back the bill unless it restricts the president’s family from profiting in crypto.
Third is DeFi regulation. Large Wall Street firms, including Citadel, are lobbying Congress to classify DeFi developers like centralized broker-dealers.
That would force software builders to register with the SEC. Industry groups warn this approach would protect incumbents while pushing crypto development out of the U.S.
Jake Chervinsky, lawyer for the Blockchain Association, said a markup vote isn’t happening in December.
What Happens Next
Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse predicted the CLARITY Act would pass in the first half of 2026.
Industry consensus says the bill gets done by mid-year.
But here’s the kicker: XRP pumped 600% from $0.49 pre-election to $3.66 in July 2025, without laws.
The rally came on speculation, not legislation.
Crypto analyst Zach Rector warns the CLARITY Act will be a buy-the-rumor, sell-the-news event, just like the ETFs.
XRP will run in anticipation of the bill signing, then correct when it actually passes.
Chart Shows $1.80 Is The Last Line Of Defense
XRP Price Prediction On TradingView
XRP is down 0.49% on the day after surrendering roughly 48% from July’s peak near $3.70.
The token now consolidates at multi-month lows with no meaningful reversal signals.
The Supertrend indicator sits at $2.1867, well above current price, while SAR dots at $1.9579 reinforce the downtrend.
A descending triangle pattern has formed since October, with horizontal support around $1.80-$1.85 and declining resistance near $1.95.
This compression typically resolves with a breakout, and the apex is approaching fast.
The critical support zone sits at $1.80-$1.85, tested multiple times in recent weeks.
A breakdown below exposes XRP to a flush toward $1.60 or lower, where minimal structural support exists.
Resistance stands at $1.95-$2.00 initially, then $2.18 where the Supertrend sits.
For any legitimate recovery, XRP needs to reclaim $2.40-$2.50, the November consolidation area.
Until that happens, the technical bias remains firmly negative.
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